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ADP:EURONEXT PARISAeroports de Paris Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

$213.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

ADP is trading at $213, which sits below its 20‑day (≈215.5), 50‑day (≈237.4) and 200‑day (≈276.4) moving averages, signaling a short‑term bearish bias. The RSI of 38.6 hints at a modestly oversold condition, while the MACD histogram is positive (+1.77), suggesting a potential technical bounce. Volume has been trending down, and 30‑day volatility remains high at 32.7%, which together raise short‑term risk, although the stock’s beta of 0.58 points to lower systematic risk.
Fundamentally, ADP delivered a solid Q2 beat with 6% revenue growth, an 80‑bp EBIT margin expansion and an 11% rise in adjusted EPS, prompting management to lift its FY‑2026 EPS outlook to 9‑10% and announce an expanded share‑repurchase program. The company trades at a forward PE of 17.8, well under the industry average of 37.0, and offers a 3.13% dividend yield with a payout ratio near 60%. However, its DCF‑derived fair value of $149 is well below the current price, indicating that the market may be overvaluing the stock relative to intrinsic calculations, even as analysts target a mean price of $272.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price below key moving averages and bearish trend direction
  • Decreasing volume and elevated short‑term volatility
  • Strong recent earnings beat and dividend yield

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Raised FY‑2026 EPS outlook and expanding share‑repurchase program
  • Forward PE well below industry average, indicating value upside
  • Target price of $272 implies ~27% upside from current level

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend supported by solid cash flow and moderate leverage
  • High ROE and recurring HCM revenue base provide durable earnings power
  • DCF fair value gap suggests caution on price appreciation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.20%
Profit Margin19.96%
P/E Ratio20.5
ROE73.84%
ROA4.71%
Debt/Equity70.04
P/B Ratio13.4
Op. Cash Flow$4.7B
Free Cash Flow$3.5B
Industry P/E37.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI38.6
Support$203.26
Resistance$226.50
MA 20$215.48
MA 50$237.40
MA 200$276.35
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.16

Valuation

Fair Value$149.23
Target Price$272.00
Upside/Downside27.70%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.13%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.58
Volatility32.66%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.